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Pipeline Prospector Oct 2023: Disappointing Q3 results, attacks on Israel, Gaza drag pharma indices down further

October was a gloomy month that saw Palestinian militant group Hamas attack Israel in the first week, resulting in the killing of hundreds of innocent people. Israel retaliated, formally declaring a war on Hamas. Another raging war, after the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, doesn’t augur well for the planet, let alone humanity, economies and industries.The pharma indices reacted to the bloodshed, as also to the disappointing third quarter (Q3) results posted by some drugmakers. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI) was down 8 percent, at US$ 3,637.05 while the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) was down 12 percent, at US$ 64.12, and the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index (SPSIBI) was down by 9 percent, at US$ 4,991.31.On the upside, the month saw several large deals. The biggest deal of the month was Roche’s acquisition of Telavant from Roivant for US$ 7.1 billion. BMS announced the acquisition of Mirati Therapeutics for US$ 4.8 billion. Through this acquisition, BMS will gain access to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved lung cancer drug Krazati (adagrasib). And Eli Lilly expanded its oncology capabilities by acquiring Point Biopharma for US$ 1.4 billion.Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for October 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel)Sanofi, Takeda cut 2023 profit forecasts; AbbVie, BMS post drop in Q3 salesSeveral drugmakers announced their Q3 2023 results last month. Sanofi (stock down by 15 percent in October) reported a 4.1 percent drop in Q3 sales, at €11.9 billion (US$ 12.5 billion). What was worse, the French drugmaker lost €20 billion (US$ 21 billion) in market capitalization soon after announcing these results as it had abandoned its 2025 profit target of 32 percent. Instead of chasing the lofty target, Sanofi has decided to focus on “long-term profitability”, and increase spending on immunology and inflammation drug development. Sales of Sanofi’s multiple sclerosis drug Aubagio dropped by a whopping 60.5 percent to €199 million (US$ 210.2 million) primarily due to competition from generics in the US market. Takeda (down by 7 percent) slashed its full-year profit forecast by 36 percent to 225 billion yen (US$ 1.5 billion) as it contends with disappointments in its development pipeline and the loss of patent protection in key products.BMS (down by 10 percent) reported Q3 revenue of US$ 11 billion, a 2 percent decrease from the same quarter last year, mainly due to 41 percent decline in sales of its cancer drug Revlimid.AbbVie (down by 5 percent) reported Q3 net revenues of US$ 13.92 billion, marking a 6 percent decrease over Q3 2022. This drop is attributed in part to the launch of Humira biosimilars, which have caused a 36.2 percent reduction in the immunology drug’s net revenues. Additionally, AbbVie’s blood cancer drug Imbruvica’s net revenues have dropped by 20 percent.Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for October 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel) Low Covid sales hit Pfizer, BioNTech, Roche stocks; Pfizer’s Q3 sales dip by 42%Pfizer (down by 9 percent) saw a 42 percent decline in its Q3 revenues — at US$ 13.23 billion — primarily due to lower sales of its Covid products. While sales of its mRNA vaccine Comirnaty fell by 70 percent (at US$ 1.3 billion), its Covid drug Paxlovid saw a 97 percent drop in sales over Q3 2022.Pfizer has significantly reduced its full-year revenue forecast and also plans to save US$ 3.5 billion through job cuts and cost reductions. Its partner for Comirnaty, BioNTech, is yet to announce its Q3 results, but its stock fell by 13 percent during October.Roche’s Q3 sales also slipped by 3 percent to CHF 14.3 billion (US$ 15.9 billion) owing to a slump in Covid sales. The Swiss drugmaker has predicted a decline in 2023 sales of Covid products at about CHF 4.5 billion (US$ 4.99 billion). Its previous estimate was CHF 5 billion (US$ 5.5 billion). Roche’s stock was down by 6 percent last month.Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for October 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel) Merck, Novo raise 2023 guidance; Ozempic, Wegovy boost Novo salesAmong the gainers were mega-cap drugmakers Merck (stock up by 1 percent in October) and Novo Nordisk (up by 4 percent). Merck has reported higher-than-expected third-quarter results on strong demand for its Covid-19 treatment, Lagevrio (molnupiravir), cancer med Keytruda and HPV vaccine Gardasil. As a result, Merck has revised its 2023 sales upwards, in the range of US$ 59.7 billion to US$ 60.2 billion (from US$ 58.6 billion to US$ 59.6 billion).Novo Nordisk’s popular diabetes med Ozempic and weight loss med Wegovy are boosting the company’s sales. Ergo, the company expects full-year sales to grow between 32 and 38 percent at constant exchange rates. Moreover, Novo has acquired ocedurenone, a drug in late-stage trial, from KBP Biosciences for up to US$ 1.3 billion. Ocedurenone is an oral treatment for uncontrolled hypertension with potential applications in cardiovascular and kidney disease.Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for October 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel) Astra, Ventyx stocks hit by disappointing trial data; Lilly, Vertex post gainsAstraZeneca’s stock was hit by disappointing results from a late-stage trial of its experimental lung cancer drug — datopotamab deruxtecan. Astra’s stock was down by 6 percent in October and its partner in developing the drug, Daiichi Sankyo’s stock fell by 4 percent.Similarly, Ventyx Biosciences (down by 56 percent) announced positive results from a phase 2 trial in patients with moderate-to-severely active ulcerative colitis, but investors were unimpressed due to doubts about whether the candidate has an edge over rival Pfizer’s etrasimod and BMS’ Zeposia. Akero Therapeutics’ (down by 76 percent) nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) candidate, efruxifermin, failed mid-stage trial as it didn’t show any significant benefit for patients with cirrhosis caused by NASH, the most advanced and life-threatening stage of the fatty liver disease. Similarly, Sarepta Therapeutics’ treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (a muscle-wasting disease) — Elevidys — failed a phase 3 study, taking its stock down by 44 percent in October.In a positive clinical trial news, Lilly’s Crohn’s disease experimental drug mirikizumab met the main goals of a phase 3 study. Similarly, Vertex (up by 4 percent) posted encouraging positive clinical trial results of VX-880 to treat type 1 diabetes.Meanwhile, FDA issued a complete response letter (CRL) to Alnylam Pharmaceuticals’ siRNA therapy Onpattro (patisiran) for the treatment of cardiomyopathy of transthyretin-mediated amyloidosis. It stated that Alnylam (down by 15 percent) has not provided enough evidence of the therapy’s benefit in the proposed indication.Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for October 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel) Our viewThe biopharma industry is eagerly awaiting the approval of several experimental drugs in Q4 2023, including Italfarmaco’s givinostat for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), and Valneva’s single-shot chikungunya vaccine VLA1553.We are already seeing the market inch upwards. Let’s hope the exciting pipeline and new drug approvals are able to pull pharma indices out of the doldrums.Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for October 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel)

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02 Nov 2023

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Biotech indices inch up post SVB bloodbath; Covid drugmakers report drop in Q1 sales

In March, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) had dragged the biotech indices down. SVB had made considerable investments in the biotech space, and its downfall had left many life sciences and healthcare companies vulnerable.Within a month of the SVB storm, biotech indices have bounced back. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI) gained 1 percent to end April at US$ 4,187.32. It was down 1.3 percent in March. The S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index (SPSIBI) was up 2 percent at US$ 6,094.82, and the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) increased 4 percent to US$ 80.20. Both SPSIBI and XBI had dropped by 8.3 percent and 8.2 percent, respectively, in March.In April, several drugmakers announced their first quarter (Q1) results. The month also saw three major M&A deals — Merck’s US$ 10.8 billion buyout of Prometheus Biosciences, Astellas Pharma’s US$ 5.9 billion acquisition of Iveric Bio and GSK’s US$ 2 billion deal to buy Bellus Health.Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for April 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel)Pfizer reports 29% drop in Q1 revenues, falls behind GSK in RSV vaccine raceWe have seen this happening for many months now, with Pfizer’s stock consistently falling since January. The Q1 results only echoed that sentiment — Pfizer’s revenues fell 29 percent to US$ 18.3 billion due to a 77 percent drop in sales of its Covid-19 vaccine Comirnaty. This led to a further 5 percent drop in the drug behemoth’s stock in April. What was going right for Pfizer was its experimental respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine. But GSK raced ahead of Pfizer this month when the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved its RSV vaccine — Arexvy — for adults aged 60 years and older. The Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date for the Pfizer jab for older adults is this month too. GSK also announced the acquisition of Canada-based drug developer Bellus Health (up 114 percent) for US$ 2 billion.Among other Covid drugmakers, Moderna’s stock also suffered a 17 percent loss last month. What was worse, its experimental messenger RNA-based influenza vaccine failed to demonstrate effectiveness against influenza B. Moderna is planning to go ahead with a phase 3 study of mRNA-4157 (its investigational individualized neo-antigen therapy) and Keytruda combo in patients with adjuvant melanoma this year.Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for April 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel) Wegovy helps boost Novo’s Q1 revenues; Vabysmo brings gains for RocheIn April, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly posted gains in the bourses. Wegovy’s success in the US helped Novo’s obesity care segment notch up a 131 percent increase in Q1 sales. Novo’s diabetes and obesity drug sales rose 33 percent and were at DKK 48.8 billion (US$ 7.11 billion). Overall, the Danish drugmaker posted an impressive 27 percent growth in its Q1 sales — which were at DKK 53.4 billion (US$ 7.7 billion) — while its stock rose 5 percent in April.Lilly is seeking to compete with Wegovy’s dominance in the obesity market with its own drug, Mounjaro. It recently posted favorable data from a late-stage trial, where Mounjaro achieved 21 percent weight reduction in non-diabetic patients, compared to 15 percent for Wegovy. Lilly is now conducting another Phase 3b trial to test Mounjaro against Wegovy. And in a separate trial, Mounjaro led to a 16 percent weight loss in patients with type 2 diabetes. The drugmaker‘s stock rose by a handsome 15 percent.Roche Group’s pharmaceutical division posted 9 percent growth in Q1 sales — at CHF 11.7 billion (US$ 12.7 billion) — due to strong demand for newer medicines. Eye diseases drug Vabysmo, approved last year, turned out to be the strongest growth driver, generating CHF 432 million (US$ 486 million) in global sales. Roche expects the drug to generate US$ 2 billion in revenue this year. The Swiss drugmaker also shared post-hoc analyses from four additional phase 3 studies showing Vabysmo to be more effective at drying retinal fluid than Regeneron’s Eylea in Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and Diabetic Macular Edema (DME). Roche’s stock gained 11 percent.In addition, FDA approved Roche’s Polivy as part of a five-drug combination for previously untreated diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), the first new treatment in nearly 20 years to significantly improve outcomes in first-line DLBCL. In Q1, Roche reported a decline of 3 percent in group sales due to lower demand for Covid tests.Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for April 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel)Higher sales of key drugs take Novartis’ Q1 sales up 8%; J&J lowers 2023 guidanceNovartis’ Q1 sales grew 8 percent to US$ 12.95 billion, driven by strong performance of its heart failure drug Entresto, cancer meds Pluvicto and Kisqali, and multiple sclerosis drug Kesimpta. Based on higher Q1 sales, the Swiss drugmaker has raised its outlook for 2023.Novartis and partner BeiGene’s experimental drug tislelizumab showed promising results in treating certain types of gastric cancer in a late-stage trial. The partners hope this data will help make tislelizumab the first-line therapy for patients with advanced forms of gastric cancer. While Novartis’ stock went up 11 percent, BeiGene’s stock gained 17 percent in April.Though J&J’s Q1 results exceeded analyst expectations, the drugmaker lowered the 2023 guidance for its pharmaceutical business. Leaked data from a phase 3 trial showed that J&J and Legend’s cancer drug Carvykti performed better-than-expected in patients with multiple myeloma. J&J’s stock went up 4 percent. Legend’s stock rose 46 percent.Among small cap companies, Madrigal’s stock rose 24 percent in April on news of a breakthrough therapy designation for its drug Resmetirom as a treatment for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for April 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel)Merck acquires Prometheus for US$ 10.8 bn; Astellas buys Iveric Bio for US$ 5.9 bnApril proved to be a good month for both Merck and AstraZeneca, even though the two drugmakers reported a drop in their Q1 revenues due to decreased sales of their Covid-19 products.While Merck reported a 9 percent drop in Q1 sales (at US$ 14.5 billion), with sales of its Covid-19 antiviral pill Lagevrio (molnupiravir) dropping 88 percent, Astra reported a 4 percent decrease in revenue (at US$ 10.88 billion) in Q1. Stocks of both drugmakers rose by 6 percent.In early April, FDA had granted accelerated approval to Merck’s Keytruda in combination with Seagen and Astellas Pharma’s Padcev as a first-line treatment for adults with locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma. Later in the month, Merck announced it is acquiring San Diego-based biotech Prometheus Biosciences for US$ 10.8 billion to strengthen its immunology pipeline. Prometheus’ stock skyrocketed 76 percent on the news.A combination of AstraZeneca's cancer drugs — Imfinzi and Lynparza — met its main goal in a late-stage trial for patients with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer. Additionally, Astra’s Ultomiris also received a positive recommendation from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for adult patients with neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder.Japanese drugmaker Astellas Pharma announced its biggest deal last month when it acquired New Jersey-based eye drug developer Iveric Bio for US$ 5.9 billion, taking its stock up 9 percent. The deal will give Astellas access to Iveric Bio’s ophthalmology treatments, including its lead drug candidate for geographic atrophy — Zimura. Iveric Bio’s stock gained 22 percent.Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for April 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel)Disappointing Q1 sales drag AbbVie, BMS stocks downBoth AbbVie and Bristol Myers Squibb reported a drop in Q1 sales. AbbVie was hit due to weaker-than-expected performance of its blockbuster drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq and dwindling sales of Humira (which experienced a sales drop of 25.2 percent in the face of biosimilar competition in the US). Its Q1 sales fell by 9.7 percent to US$ 12.25 billion, and its stock was down 6 percent. In positive news, FDA expanded the approval of AbbVie’s Qulipta as a preventive treatment for chronic migraine in adults. Rinvoq also received an add-on authorization in the EU as a treatment for moderate-to-severe active Crohn’s disease.BMS’ Q1 sales dropped 3 percent to US$ 11.3 billion, primarily due to an erosion in Revlimid’s sales in the face of competition from generic drugs. Revlimid’s revenues fell by 37 percent in Q1 compared to the same period last year. BMS’ stock experienced a 4 percent drop.Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for April 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel)Our viewThe collapse of three US banks over the last three months has dealt a blow to the US economy. Globally, the business scenario hasn’t improved much, with inflation, high interest rates, ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, supply chain kinks and other uncertainties continuing to pose challenges.If the biotech indices are able to hold up in these difficult times, it is an indication of strength and resilience within the sector.Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for April 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel)

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11 May 2023

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Pipeline Prospector Feb 2023: Low demand for Covid drugs hammers down Lilly, Moderna stocks

The year had opened on a buoyant note. But February quickly dashed any hopes of a market rebound and reinforced that volatility isn’t going anywhere in a hurry.After beginning the year on a positive note, biotech indices dipped in February. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI) was down 6.3 percent (at US$ 4,075), the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index (SPSIBI) fell 7 percent to US$ 6,451 and the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) dropped 7.7 percent to US$ 82.85. In January, NBI was up 4.4 percent, SPSIBI had increased by 8.7 percent, while XBI had risen by 9 percent.Many drugmakers announced their 2022 results last month. Several mega cap drugmakers, such as Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer saw their stocks get hammered for a straight second month. February didn’t witness any significant deal or buyout.Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for February 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel)Low demand for Covid drugs impacts Lilly, J&J; Moderna, Roche issue lower guidanceIn our last month’s report, we had carried news about Lilly and J&J posting lower revenues due to a drop in sales of their Covid-19 treatments. Not only did Lilly’s Q4 revenues decrease, its diabetes drug Mounjaro also failed to live up to investors’ expectations. All this news resulted in a 9 percent drop in Lilly’s stock.It was a tough month for J&J (-7 percent drop in stock) as well, whose Q4 revenues declined by 4 percent to US$ 23.7 billion and its Covid-19 vaccine experienced a 57 percent drop in sales. J&J’s autoimmune disease drug Remicade saw a 37 percent drop in sales due to competition from biosimilars. And, after a court rejected J&J’s two-step bankruptcy strategy for its talcum powder lawsuits, the US Supreme Court rejected the drugmaker’s appeal against a US$ 302 million verdict in a lawsuit filed by the state of California, accusing J&J of hiding the dangers associated with its pelvic mesh devices. Though Roche (-5 percent) posted a 2 percent increase in 2022 sales (at US$ 67.6 billion/CHF 63.3 billion), its guidance for 2023 cautions of a US$ 5.5 billion sales drop due to its Covid-19 therapy and diagnostic kits. Gilead (-5 percent) failed to register any growth in its 2022 revenues largely due to a 30 percent drop in sales of its Covid-19 treatment Veklury.Moderna (-20 percent) said it expects the annual sales of its Covid-19 vaccine to be around US$ 5 billion in 2023 – less than a third of the US$ 18.4 billion it had hauled in 2022 – due to falling demand for its vaccine. Its messenger RNA-based influenza vaccine demonstrated a strong immune response against A strains of the flu, but proved less effective against the less common influenza B strain.Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for February 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel)Astra posts 19% rise in 2022 revenues, Keytruda pushes up sales for MerckBolstered by a rise in the sales of its immunology, neuroscience and aesthetics treatments, AbbVie’s 2022 revenue grew by 3.3 percent to US$ 58 billion. Its stock rose 5 percent in February.AstraZeneca reported 2022 revenue of US$ 44.35 billion, a growth of 19 percent over 2021. Cancer treatments accounted for 35 percent of its business, with its blockbuster drugs Lynparza, Tagrisso, Imfinzi and Farxiga registering significant sales growth. Astra plans to deliver at least 15 new medicines this decade and initiate at least 30 new late-stage clinical trials this year. Astra's stock went up 3%.Buoyed by the sales of diabetes and obesity drugs, which brought in US$ 22.8 billion (DKK 156.4 billion), Novo Nordisk’s 2022 sales reached US$ 25.3 billion (DKK 177 billion), a growth of 26 percent year-over-year. Novo’s stock was up 2 percent.Merck (2 percent) reported an increase of 22 percent in 2022 sales, reaching US$ 59.3 billion. This growth was mainly driven by its blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine Gardasil. The drugmaker continued to experiment with Keytruda across different types of cancer, achieving success in two trials while experiencing setbacks in two others. Meanwhile, Merck said it expects sales of its Covid-19 pill Lagevrio (molnupiravir) to decline from US$ 5.7 billion in 2022 to just around US$ 1 billion in 2023.Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for February 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel) Seagen gains on buyout report; GSK kept quiet about Zantac’s cancer risksSeagen’s stock surged by 30 percent last month. The cancer treatment specialist announced positive full-year results, with its revenue growing by 25 percent in 2022 due to an increase in sales of its antibody-drug conjugates. The Wall Street Journal reported that Pfizer was in early-stage talks to buy Seagen for over US$ 30 billion.Pfizer’s stock continued to slide. After registering a drop of 14 percent in January, Pfizer’s stock lost 7 percent in February. The drugmaker and its French partner Valneva decided to discontinue half of the total number of recruited participants in the US in a phase 3 trial of their experimental Lyme disease vaccine due to violations of clinical trial regulations by a third-party contractor.GSK’s stock dropped 3 percent in February. A damning report brought out by Bloomberg said GSK’s scientists knew for decades about the cancer risks associated with its popular heartburn drug Zantac (ranitidine), but the drugmaker chose to keep quiet about them.In positive news, an external panel of experts supported both Pfizer and GSK’s respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines. The US Food and Drug Administration granted full approval to GSK’s Jemperli (dostarlimab) in endometrial cancer. Moreover, the agency’s panel of external advisors backed GSK’s proposed single-arm trials to gain accelerated approval of Jemperli in rectal cancer.Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for February 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel) Apellis’ geographic atrophy drug bags FDA nod; FTC scrutinizes Amgen-Horizon dealSanofi (-4 percent) decided to halt a late-stage clinical trial of its oral drug for myasthenia gravis – tolebrutinib – that it had acquired through its US$ 3.7 billion takeover of Principia Biopharma. Despite its 2022 revenues growing by 7 percent to US$ 47.1 billion (€43 billion), Sanofi fell short of meeting market expectations. In a positive update, FDA approved Sanofi’s Altuviiio to prevent and treat bleeding episodes in people with hemophilia A. The Federal Trade Commission has issued a second request for information regarding Amgen’s US$ 28.3 billion acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics. Amgen’s stock dropped 6 percent. And in a setback to Jazz Pharmaceuticals, a US appeals court has upheld an injunction that states a patent related to the drugmaker’s narcolepsy drug should be removed from FDA’s Orange Book. Jazz’s stock lost 11 percent in February.Among mid- to small-cap companies, Apellis Pharmaceuticals’ drug Syfovre (pegcetacoplan) has been approved by FDA as the first-ever treatment for geographic atrophy, a major cause of blindness. Apellis’ stock went up 20 percent in February. And Ambrx Biopharma’s stock shot up 200 percent after it posted encouraging initial data from an ongoing phase 1 trial of its experimental prostate cancer drug.Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for February 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel) Our viewThe drop in sales of Covid drugs is contributing to a negative outlook around financial performance of some large drug companies. With the pandemic receding, this was bound to happen. Even though January raised hopes of market watchers, February has proven that we truly live in a VUCA (short for volatility, uncertainties, complexity and ambiguity) world.Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for February 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel)

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Pipeline Prospector Oct 2023: Disappointing Q3 results, attacks on Israel, Gaza drag pharma indices down further

Biotech indices inch up post SVB bloodbath; Covid drugmakers report drop in Q1 sales

Pipeline Prospector Feb 2023: Low demand for Covid drugs hammers down Lilly, Moderna stocks

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