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Big Pharma bets big on AI’s US$ 148 bn potential to revolutionize healthcare industry

Artificial intelligence (AI) is changing the world and bringing efficiencies across all industries. Pharmaceuticals is one of them. AI can accelerate drug discovery, streamline clinical trials, and personalize medicine. It holds the potential to revolutionize the pharma industry.It takes anywhere between 10 to 15 years and around US$ 3 billion to take a new drug from its discovery phase to the market. AI can drastically cut both the timespan and costs and bring life-saving yet affordable treatments to the market at a faster pace. The global AI market in healthcare was estimated to be about US$ 21 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to over US$ 148 billion by 2029, compounding at an annual growth rate of 48.1 percent.Drugmakers are eager to ride the AI wave. Players like Bayer, Merck KGaA, Moderna, BMS, Roche, Astellas, Amgen, Eli Lilly, Sanofi, Novo Nordisk and Johnson & Johnson have announced collaborations, signed deals and entered into partnerships in the AI space. Many others, such as Exscientia, Insilico, Berg, Nimbus, Recursion, and Pharos iBio, are a step ahead and are holding clinical trials on drugs developed using AI.On its part, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has recognized the increased use of AI and machine learning (ML) and has reiterated its commitment to ensure the safety and efficacy of drugs “while facilitating innovations in their development.” To this end, the US agency published a paper in March that lists out its approach towards the use of AI.Novo, Lilly turn to AI for drug discovery; AI-based firms sign multiple dealsWith increased adoption of wearable devices, e-health services and other technology-driven offerings in medicine and healthcare, there is valuable data out there that drugmakers can analyze to get more accurate predictions of a drug’s effects on the human body. Such an analysis speeds up drug development and reduces side effects of therapies. Ergo, several large drugmakers have signed crucial AI deals. For example, Novo Nordisk has inked a potential US$ 2.7 billion deal with Valo Health to discover and develop novel treatments for cardio-metabolic diseases. The collaboration between the two organizations will leverage the capabilities of Valo’s Opal Computational Platform, including access to real-world patient data, AI-enabled small molecule discovery and Biowire human tissue modeling platform designed to speed up the discovery and development process.Similarly, Eli Lilly has entered into a US$ 494 million deal with Fauna Bio to use the latter’s AI platform — Convergence — for preclinical drug discovery efforts in obesity. Convergence analyzes genomic data from 452 mammal species and various tissue types to create a comprehensive dataset. By integrating human data and information from animals with natural disease resistance, the platform can identify potential drug targets.AI-based pharma firms like Isomorphic Labs and Biolojic are also landing multiple deals. Isomorphic is owned by Google’s parent Alphabet. Along with Google DeepMind, it has created a new AI model that can accurately predict 76 percent of protein interactions with small molecules. In January, Isomorphic inked deals with Novartis and Lilly for a combined value of nearly US$ 3 billion.Biolojic Design uses computational biology and AI to transform antibodies into programmable, intelligent medicines. Earlier this month, it announced a multi-target drug discovery collaboration with Merck KGaA, which includes antibody-drug conjugates. Biolojic has also inked deals with Teva and Nektar recently.Amgen harnesses generative biology for protein-based drugs; Sanofi ties up with OpenAIFinding a good protein drug candidate is like finding a needle in a haystack. Drug developers typically start by looking at proteins in nature and then go through the painstaking process of shaping them into safe and effective drugs.Generative biology is a revolutionary approach to drug discovery and development that leverages ML and AI to design novel protein therapeutics. Amgen is using generative biology to innovate new protein-based drugs that have desired structures and properties based on existing protein data inputs. In fact, the California-based multinational has said it is “integrating AI across all operational levels.” It has collaborated with PostEra to advance up to five small molecule programs.Amgen is building AI models trained to analyze one of the world’s largest human datasets on an NVIDIA full-stack data center platform, known as DGX SuperPOD, that will be installed at Amgen’s deCODE genetics’ headquarters in Reykjavik, Iceland. This system will be used to build a human diversity atlas for drug target and disease-specific biomarker discovery, providing vital diagnostics for monitoring disease progression and regression.AI can analyze individual data like genetic makeup, lifestyle and medical history to come up with personalized therapies. Amgen is working on AI-driven precision medicines, and potentially individualized therapies, at its Iceland facility.Sanofi too has signed multiple deals in recent months. In May, the French drugmaker signed a collaboration with ChatGPT maker OpenAI and Formation Bio to build AI-powered software to accelerate drug development. Sanofi is also collaborating with BioMap in a deal that could be worth up to US$ 1 billion. The deal is expected to enable superior prediction from limited data in a range of therapeutic areas, including immunology, neurology, oncology, and rare diseases.AI tools can create control arms, digital twins and slash failure rate in clinical trialsTraditional ways of drug development are fraught with challenges, and 90 percent of drug candidates in clinical trials tend to fail. Major reasons behind this are poor patient cohort selection and recruiting mechanisms, and the inability to monitor patients effectively during trials. AI tools like Trial Pathfinder study real data obtained from patients’ electronic health records and simulate clinical trials for the drug with different eligibility criteria. Trial Pathfinder also calculates trial hazard ratios, a scientific term that compares the survival rates of those given and not given the drug.AI and synthetic data can also be used to create control arms in clinical trials, which can help speed up the process, reduce costs, and improve the quality of data. For example, FDA has supported the use of a Medidata Synthetic Control Arm in a phase 3 trial of Medicenna’s MDNA55 in recurrent glioblastoma.In addition to observing real-time patient data, researchers can also create digital twins, virtual replicas of cells, organs, or people, which they can use to simulate and predict various clinical outcomes during a trial.Our viewThe pharmaceutical industry is on the cusp of a revolution. In the coming years, we hope to see some tangible results of the efforts being put in by drugmakers, AI developers and regulatory agencies. The CPhI Annual Report 2023 has predicted that in 2030, over half of FDA-approved drugs will involve AI in their development and/or manufacturing. The winner, in our view, will be the end-user who will have cheaper, safer and more effective treatments, delivered at a faster pace.

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#Phispers by PHARMACOMPASS

13 Jun 2024

Top Pharma Companies & Drugs in 2021: Covid vaccines, pills cause churn in list

Every year, the list of top pharmaceutical products and companies by sales sees some churn. But the year 2021 was a lot different — it saw the pharma industry landscape change dramatically. It was a year when the industry was busy developing vaccines and therapies so that the world could recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. And this resulted in many drugmakers raking in billions of dollars in sales. As a result, the top company of 2020 in terms of pharmaceutical sales — Roche — slipped to the number five spot, while Pfizer, which was at number eight in 2020 after spinning off its generic business, moved up to the number one slot. The year proved to be a good one for pharmaceutical companies. Interestingly, last year none of the top 20 pharmaceutical companies saw a decline in their revenue. View Our Interactive Dashboard on Top Drugs by Sales in 2021 (Free Excel Available) Pfizer’s Comirnaty steals the show The company that reaped the maximum gains from its Covid vaccine was Pfizer. Comirnaty (tozinameran) was the top selling pharmaceutical product of 2021, posting global revenues of US$ 36.8 billion. This messenger-RNA Covid-19 vaccine, developed along with its German partner BioNTech, catapulted Pfizer to the slot of the top company by sales in 2021. Pfizer’s global topline grew from US$ 41.7 billion in 2020 to US$ 81.3 billion in 2021. In 2020, Pfizer was at number eight, behind Roche, Novartis, GSK, AbbVie, J&J, Merck and BMS. In 2021, it took a lead of billions of dollars on all these companies. The second largest drug company by sales — AbbVie — was way down at US$ 56.1 billion in global revenues. In fact, Comirnaty has become the fastest-selling drug in the history of the pharmaceutical industry. Back in December 2020, when both Comirnaty and Moderna’s Spikevax had bagged the US Food and Drug Administration’s emergency use authorization (EUA), there was a lot of uncertainty around how the promised doses would be delivered across the world. But both Comirnaty and Spikevax have proven to be a resounding success. Spikevax emerged as the third largest selling pharmaceutical product of 2021, bringing in US$ 17.7 billion for Moderna. Analysts expect both Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna to sell even more vaccines in 2022. The reasons are manifold. First, SARS-CoV-2 is able to mutate often, and is unlikely to be eradicated in the near future, creating a need for booster shots. Second, the younger age groups are still to get vaccinated. Along with Comirnaty, Pfizer is battling Covid-19 with its antiviral pill, Paxlovid. Though the sales of Paxlovid have nosedived of late, Pfizer expects Comirnaty and Paxlovid to help the New York-headquartered drug behemoth achieve US$ 100 billion in 2022 revenues. View Our Interactive Dashboard on Top Drugs by Sales in 2021 (Free Excel Available) AbbVie moves up, sans Covid product; Roche slips to number five With no Covid-19 related products, AbbVie did fairly well in 2021 — it moved up from the number four spot in 2020 to number two position, thanks to its Allergan acquisition, cash cow Humira (adalimumab), the continued success of its cancer drug Imbruvica (ibrutinib) and an increase in sale of its psoriasis treatment Skyrizi (risankizumab) by a whopping 85 percent in 2021. Humira brought in sales of US$ 21.2 billion for AbbVie in 2021. However, things may change soon, with biosimilars of Humira slated to enter the market in 2023. The years 2022 and 2023 are likely to be transition years for AbbVie, as it works to build the market for its Humira successors — Rinvoq and Skyrizi. Roche emerged as a big loser in 2021, as several copycats of its blockbuster drugs hit the market. Copycats to Roche’s three blockbuster cancer drugs—Avastin, Herceptin and Rituxan—eroded US$ 4.9 billion (CHF 4.73 billion) from the company’s sales in 2021. A large chunk of growth for Roche came from its multiple sclerosis med Ocrevus, hemophilia drug Hemlibra, inflammatory disease therapy Actemra and PD-L1 inhibitor Tecentriq. The pandemic resulted in lower-than-expected sales of Ocrevus (ocrelizumab) due to fears around its immunosuppressive effects. Like Roche, Novartis also slipped last year. It fell from number two in 2020 to the number four slot in 2021. Essentially, Novartis is struggling with a relatively lackluster pipeline. It had sold its 33 percent stake in Roche last year for US$ 20.7 billion. It plans to use that sum for acquisitions in order to beef up its pipeline. The Swiss drugmaker has also drawn up a restructuring plan that includes layoffs of thousands of employees. Before the pandemic, Merck’s Keytruda was touted as the drug that would overtake Humira at the top in 2024. The checkpoint inhibitor has continued to grow impressively, adding new indications and treatment lines. Keytruda is now used in close to 40 indications. With US$ 17.2 billion in sales, Keytruda emerged as the fourth largest selling drug of 2022. Overall though, Merck slipped from number six to the number eight slot. This was due to the fact that Merck had spun out its women’s health, biosimilars and established brands businesses into Organon. However, its Covid-19 antiviral pill — Molnupiravir — was able to compensate for the lost revenue. Though the FDA is yet to grant the drug a full approval (it bagged an EUA in December 2021), advance sales agreements helped it rack up US$ 952 million in sales in the fourth quarter. View Our Interactive Dashboard on Top Drugs by Sales in 2021 (Free Excel Available) BMS moves up with Eliquis, Revlimid; J&J lands at number three Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) moved up from number seven in 2020 to number six, thanks to two of its drugs that made it to top 10 — anticoagulant Eliquis at number five and oncology drug Revlimid at number six. However, Revlimid will soon face competition — four generic companies now have the approval to sell their versions of Revlimid (lenalidomide) after March 2022. Revlimid sales are expected to drop from US$ 12.9 billion to just US$ 2.06 billion in 2026. BMS posted US$ 46.4 billion in global revenues, a nine percent increase from US$ 42.5 billion reported in 2020. In immuno-oncology, Opdivo brought in US$ 7.52 billion in sales, while Yervoy drew in sales of US$ 2 billion (an increase of 20 percent). J&J’s pharma division brought in US$ 52.1 billion in revenues last year, an increase of 14 percent over its revenues of US$ 45.6 billion posted in 2020. Drugs like Darzalex (for multiple myeloma), Stelara and its Covid-19 vaccine brought in growth during 2021, helping J&J move up from number five to the number three slot. J&J’s Covid-19 vaccine brought in US$ 2.4 billion in sales. View Our Interactive Dashboard on Top Drugs by Sales in 2021 (Free Excel Available) GSK bags approval for shingles vaccine; Takeda suffers setbacks GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) slipped four places — from number three in 2020 to number seven in 2021. Though GSK did not have a drug in the top 10, sales of GSK and Vir Biotechnology’s Covid-19 antibody treatment sotrovimab helped produce a seven percent increase in its 2021 revenue. The British drugmaker also bagged a critical FDA approval — its vaccine to prevent shingles (herpes zoster), Shingrix, bagged the agency’s nod in July. GSK hopes to double the sales of Shingrix by 2026. GSK is also undergoing a major transformation, and plans to demerge its consumer health unit this year. The unit generated revenues of £9.6 billion (US$ 13 billion) last year, and GSK sees the demerger as a necessary step to fuel growth through the development of new vaccines and specialty medicines. Sanofi managed to retain its ninth slot, even as its global turnover increased from US$ 39.3 billion (Euro 36.04 billion) to US$ 41.6 billion (Euro 37.76 billion). It snapped up Kymab, Tidal Therapeutics, Translate Bio, Kadmon Holdings, Origimm Biotechnology and Amunix in deals that bolstered its presence in immunology, immuno-oncology and vaccines. Dealmaking is on the French drugmaker’s menu for 2022 and beyond, Sanofi’s CFO said at this year’s virtual JP Morgan Healthcare Conference. AstraZeneca’s global revenues grew from US$ 26.6 billion in 2020 to US$ 37.4 billion in 2021. However, its rank fell from nine in 2020 to 10 in 2021. AstraZeneca wrapped up the US$ 39 billion acquisition of Alexion in July 2021. Alexion’s rare disease franchise—led by C5 inhibitors Soliris and Ultomiris—added an extra US$ 3.1 billion to Astra’s top line last year. Takeda suffered several clinical and regulatory setbacks in 2021, which it labeled as an “inflection year.” For Gilead, sales of its Covid-19 antiviral Veklury brought in US$ 5.6 billion last year, helping its revenues grow by 11 percent. View Our Interactive Dashboard on Top Drugs by Sales in 2021 (Free Excel Available) Our view If anything, the pandemic has taught us that change is the only constant. It has also taught us that products can become blockbusters in a matter of a few months. The industry landscape continues to change. On the one hand, we are seeing people scrambling to get Covid vaccines and booster shots, on the other hand, the FDA has limited the use of monoclonal antibodies, such as Eli Lilly’s bamlanivimab and etesevimab and Regeneron’s REGEN-COV (casirivimab and imdevimab), in treating Covid caused by the Omicron variant. The FDA has also pulled the authorization granted to GSK and Vir Biotechnology’s antibody therapy this month, citing data that suggested it was unlikely to be effective against the dominant Omicron sub-variant. And last week, there was news that demand for Pfizer’s antiviral pill Paxlovid has remained unexpectedly low. The supply of Paxlovid, which reduced hospitalizations or deaths in high-risk patients by around 90 percent in a clinical trial, has far outstripped demand in many countries like the US, the UK and South Korea. Though Pfizer is hopeful of crossing US$ 100 billion in revenue this year, much depends on how the pandemic pans out and what new research has to say about the novel coronavirus. A lot will change once the pandemic becomes endemic. The first four months of 2022 tell us that vaccines like Comirnaty and Spikevax will continue to perform well. But two years down the line, our charts could look very different.

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#PharmaFlow by PHARMACOMPASS

28 Apr 2022

Top drugs and pharma companies by sales in 2020

Last year, the pandemic impacted everyone’s life in one way or the other. It turned the limelight on to the pharmaceutical industry, which stepped up efforts to deliver treatments and vaccines for Covid-19. It was a year of challenges for the drug industry as it struggled to supply existing drugs and treat emergencies amid disruptions in the way business was conducted the world over. Unlike previous years when the top five drug companies largely remained unchanged, 2020 saw several movers and shakers. The acquisition of Allergan by AbbVie helped it enter the ‘top five’ list, while companies like Pfizer and Merck got edged out. Despite a 2 percent increase in revenues, Pfizer dropping out of the top five was not a complete surprise as it spun-off its Upjohn unit. The unit merged with Mylan to create Viatris, an entity with over US $10 billion in revenues. View Our Interactive Dashboard on Top drugs by sales in 2020 (Free Excel Available) Roche emerges as top drug company by global sales The top five list of global pharmaceutical companies by sales in 2020 was quite a mix of surprises. While Swiss major Roche topped the ranking of global drug companies by pharmaceutical sales (with global revenues of US$ 49.6 billion or CHF 44.532 billion), it also witnessed a sales decline of 8 percent, which was partially an outcome of the Swiss franc gaining against most currencies during the pandemic. Overall, competition from biosimilars and the Covid-19 pandemic had a negative impact on Roche’s pharmaceutical sales in 2020. However, it witnessed strong sales growth of newly launched medicines like Tecentriq, Hemlibra, Ocrevus, Perjeta and Kadcyla, which helped in offsetting the CHF 5 billion (US$ 5.53 billion) impact of competition from biosimilars. At the second position was Swiss drugmaker Novartis, whose global sales (at US$ 48.7 billion) were marginally lower than Roche’s. Unlike the numero uno, Novartis’ pharmaceutical sales grew 4 percent, driven by cardiology drug Entresto that witnessed a 44 percent increase in revenues. While its oncology unit and Sandoz’s biosimilars business also posted an increase in sales, Covid-19 negatively impacted demand, particularly for the company’s ophthalmology and dermatology operations and the retail operations of Sandoz. The year also saw Novartis’ gene therapy Zolgensma, the world’s costliest drug, reach nearly US$ 1 billion in sales. As the British pound became a lot stronger against the US dollar, GlaxoSmithKline Plc (GSK) witnessed a 3 percent increase in sales in constant currency terms and saw its group sales (£ 34.1 billion or US$ 47.27 billion) take the number three spot in US dollar terms. Strong sales performances from key growth drivers in HIV, respiratory, oncology and consumer healthcare offset disruptions from Covid-19. GSK’s consumer healthcare division reported over £10 billion (US$ 13.91 billion) in sales and the firm is on track to create new standalone biopharma and consumer healthcare companies in 2022. View Our Interactive Dashboard on Top drugs by sales in 2020 (Free Excel Available) AbbVie’s international Humira sales drop 13.6% due to biosimilars AbbVie reported worldwide revenues of US$ 45.8 billion, an increase of 38 percent versus the previous year. This included US$ 10.3 billion in revenues from the Allergan acquisition, growth in the immunology portfolio, and the continued strength of Humira in the US as well as revenue growth from Imbruvica and Venclexta. Humira, the best-selling drug since 2012, continued to dominate with US$ 19.83 billion in sales, an increase of 3.5 percent as compared to 2019. While the international sales of Humira dropped 13.6 percent due to competition from biosimilars, in the US sales increased as Humira is protected from biosimilar competition until 2023. J&J’s pharmaceutical division delivered a strong performance as its pharmaceutical sales grew 8 percent to US$ 45.6 billion and contributed more than the combined sales of its other two units — consumer health and medical devices. This sales growth was largely attributed to primary operational drivers including Imbruvica and Stelara, which were among the top 10 drugs by sales in 2020. J&J and AbbVie have an equal share in the profits (and losses) from the sales of Imbruvica, which witnessed a double digit increase in sales to US$ 9.4 billion. Similarly, J&J’s Stelara reached US$ 8.0 billion in sales. J&J’s overall revenues grew by just 0.6 percent to US$ 82.6 billion (including sales from its consumer health and medical devices divisions). It will be interesting to see what J&J’s 2021 revenues look like as it benefits from the sales of its single-dose Covid-19 vaccine. View Our Interactive Dashboard on Top drugs by sales in 2020 (Free Excel Available) Merck’s Keytruda on its way to becoming world’s best-seller With AbbVie’s Humira beginning to face generic competition, Merck’s oncology drug Keytruda continued to go from strength to strength posting a sales growth of 30 percent. Keytruda delivered more than US$ 14.4 billion in sales, almost a third of the firm’s US$ 43 billion revenue. It’s only a matter of time before Keytruda becomes the world’s best-selling drug. Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) reported worldwide revenues of US$ 42.5 billion in 2020. BMS’ products Revlimid and Eliquis reported significant growth last year, and followed Humira and Keytruda in terms of sales. Eliquis, which is also promoted by Pfizer in some geographies, had total sales of US$ 14.1 billion while Revlimid posted over US$ 12 billion in sales. Revlimid, which BMS picked up through its acquisition of Celgene, will face limited generic competition sometime after March 2022. Furthermore, while BMS’ oncology treatment Opdivo’s sales (US$ 7.2 billion) declined by 3 percent compared to 2019, it remained one of the top selling drugs in 2020 (US$ 7.9 billion) with a small portion of sales coming from Ono Pharma in Japan. Sanofi reported approximately US$ 43.6 billion (€36 billion) in net sales for 2020, which rose by 3.3 percent at constant exchange rates even as some of its flagship products’ sales declined due to generic and biosimilar competition. Solid performances from Dupixent, vaccines and its specialty care global business unit across all geographies, more than offset lower sales. In the case of Gilead, while products like Biktarvy in its HIV portfolio witnessed a growth of over 50 percent to more than US$ 6 billion, it was Gilead’s treatment for Covid-19 — remdesivir — promoted under the brand Veklury which went from no sales in 2019 to US$ 2.81 billion in sales in 2020. View Our Interactive Dashboard on Top drugs by sales in 2020 (Free Excel Available) Our view The human health business of many companies was negatively impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic. However, operating expenses saw a reduction due to lower promotional and selling costs, as well as lower R&D expenses. This year, as Covid vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna, J&J and AstraZeneca are rolled out in more countries across the world, they are expected to ring in significant revenue contributions for these companies. For instance, Pfizer recently announced that it expects US$ 26 billion in revenues from the sale of its vaccine in 2021. Similarly, Moderna said it expects US$ 19.2 billion in sales from its Covid-19 vaccine this year. Given this scenario, the order of the top drug companies and the sales contribution of various drugs will change significantly in 2021. It seems likely that Pfizer’s vaccine will become the best-selling product by sales in 2021 and the American drugmaker will be back among the top five in the global drug companies by sales list. View Our Interactive Dashboard on Top drugs by sales in 2020 (Free Excel Available)

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#PharmaFlow by PHARMACOMPASS

13 May 2021