We always knew math was fuzzy, but never imagined addition could get so
complicated.
A recent publication on 2014 Global Prescription Medication Statistics listed the top pharmaceutical corporations by revenues, the best
selling products along with the top therapy areas.
The list, based on data published by IMS Health,
caught us by surprise since a previous publication by FiercePharma had a completely different order when ranking the top 15 pharmaceutical
companies.
As the difference in revenues of the top-10 companies was in excess of $60 billion and IMS Health’s data is an industry standard for decision making, we dug deeper to analyze the correlation between the information in the annual reports and IMS Health’s statistics.
Which pharmaceutical company is the largest?
Simply put, the answer is, ‘it depends’ on how you define a pharmaceutical company.
Should divisions like diagnostics, animal health, vaccines, consumer
health be counted when determining the size of a pharmaceutical company?
FiercePharma, in their analysis, used the total
revenue of all divisions of the organizations to determine the largest
organization; in their case it is Johnson & Johnson.
IMS determines their numbers by measuring “prescription sales and dispensing” and hence, excludes divisions like diagnostics, consumer health and animal health, making Novartis the largest
company.
As currency exchange rate fluctuations have their own, big role, in
determining the size of organizations, we believed it would be best to share
the revenues, as presented, so that you can draw your own conclusions.
Table 1/ Sales comparison for top pharmaceutical companies in 2014 from different sources (IMS, Fierce Pharma and Annual Reports)
Big Pharma
IMS Rank
IMS Sales
(US $Mn)
Fierce Pharma Rank
Fierce Pharma Sales (US $Mn)
Group Sales based on the Annual Report
(Currency as reported, Mn)
Novartis
1
51,307
2
57,996
USD
57,996
Pfizer
2
44,929
4
49,605
USD
49,605
Sanofi
3
40,037
5
43,070
Euro
33,770
Roche
4
37,607
3
49,866
CHF 49,866
Merck & Co
5
36,550
6
42,237
USD
42,237
Johnson &
Johnson
6
36,422
1
74,331
USD
74,331
AstraZeneca
7
33,313
8
26,095
USD
26,095
Glaxo SmithKline
8
31,470
7
37,960
GBP
23,006
Teva
9
26,001
11
20,272
USD
20,272
Gilead Sciences
10
23,673
10
24,474
USD
24,890
Amgen
11
20,473
12
20,063
USD
20,063
Lilly
12
19,909
14
19,615
USD 19,615
AbbVie
13
19,049
13
19,960
USD
19,960
Bayer
14
18,347
9
25,470
Euro
42,239
Bristol-Myers
Squibb
Not
in Top 20
15
15,879
USD
15,879
NB: Mn is million
Click here to access and download all
the 2014 data (Excel version available) for FREE!
Since each group has multiple divisions, we further split the sales for
you to brainstorm:
Table 2/ Sales comparison of the different divisions of top
pharmaceutical companies in 2014 (Annual Reports in Mn)
Big Pharma
Pharma Division
Vaccine Division
Generics
Consumer Health
Other Divisions
Medical Devices/ Diagnostics Division
Animal Health Division
Divestures/ Other adjustments
Novartis
USD 31,791
Sandoz USD 9,562
Alcon USD 10,827
USD 5,816
Pfizer
USD 45,708
USD 3,446
USD 451
Sanofi
Euro 22,578
Euro 3,974
Euro 1,805
Euro 3,337
Euro 2,076
Roche
CHF 38,969
CHF 10,897
Merck & Co
USD 30,740
USD 5,302
USD 6,195
Johnson &
Johnson
USD 32,313
USD 14,496
USD 27,522
AstraZeneca
USD 26,095
Glaxo SmithKline
GBP 18,670
GBP 4,336
Teva
USD 10,458
USD 9,814
Gilead Sciences
USD 24,474
USD 416
Amgen
USD
19,327
USD 736
Lilly
USD 16,481
USD 788
USD 2,346
AbbVie
USD 19,960
Bayer
Euro 12,052
Euro 7,923
Euro 22,264
Bristol-Myers
Squibb
USD 15,879
Click here to access and download all
the 2014 data (Excel version available) for FREE!
Not sure that it adds any extra clarity on what should define a global pharmaceutical company…
Since the various divisions make
companies complicated to assess, what about product sales?
The good news is that we have a winner!
Humira®, AbbVie’s monoclonal antibody Adalimumab, used to treat rheumatoid and other types of arthritis, is the highest selling product globally. IMS reported Humira’s annual sales for 2014 at $11,844 million, while AbbVie mentions their sales of Humira at $12,543 million, the difference: a mere $700 million! However, with IMS gathering data across various points of the supply chain, and the recent volatility of the currency markets, we believe that a difference of 5.5% of total sales is within range of reason.
Unfortunately, things stopped making sense the moment we reached the
number-two product on the IMS list. Lantus®,
Sanofi’s insulin glargine, recorded sales of Euro 6,344 million (based on Sanofi’s 2014 annual report), while IMS mentions Lantus sales were $10,331 million last year. In addition, Sanofi has an 11% growth rate reported while IMS indicates a growth of 30%.
So unless the Euro/Dollar exchange rate moves back towards the 1.5
range, there seems to be a serious difference in the way the product sales are
calculated by companies and by IMS.
Using information available in the annual reports and other company declarations, we attempted to compare IMS’ Top 20 Global Products 2014 with available public information, to only find more complications!
Table 3/ Sales comparison of the top pharmaceutical products in 2014 (IMS vs Annual Reports)
Products
IMS Rank
IMS Sales (US $Mn)
Annual Reports Sales (US $Mn)
Pharma
Compass Rank
Big Pharma
Currency
Annual Reports Sales in Mn
Marketing Partner
Marketing Partner Annual Report Sales
(US $Mn)
Humira®
1
11,844
12,543
1
Abbvie
USD
12,543
Lantus®
2
10,331
7,676
5
Sanofi
Euro
6,344
Sovaldi®
3
9,375
10,283
2
Gilead Sciences
USD
10,283
Abilify®
4
9,285
7,556
6
Bristol
Myers-Squibb
USD
2,020
Otsuka
5,536
Enbrel®
5
8,707
8,538
4
Amgen
USD
4,688
Pfizer
3,850
Seretide®
6
8,652
6,589
8
GSK
GBP
4,229
Crestor®
7
8,473
5,512
11
AstraZeneca
USD
5,512
Remicade®
8
8,097
9,880
3
Johnson &
Johnson
USD
6,868
Merck & Co.
2,372
Mitsubishi
Tanabe
640
Nexium®
9
7,681
3,655
19
AstraZeneca
USD
3,655
Mabthera®
10
6,552
6,936
7
Roche
CHF
5,603
Roche
1,305
Avastin®
11
6,070
6,449
9
Roche
CHF
6,417
Lyrica®
12
6,002
5,168
12
Pfizer
USD
5,168
Herceptin®
13
5,564
6,306
10
Roche
CHF
6,275
Spiriva®
14
5,483
3,917
17
Boehringer
Euro
3,237
Januvia®
15
4,991
3,931
16
Merck & Co.
USD
3,931
Copaxone®
16
4,788
4,237
14
Teva
USD
4,237
Novorapid®
17
4,718
2,835
20
Novo Nordisk
DKK
17,449
Neulasta®
18
4,627
4,596
13
Amgen
USD
4,596
Symbicort®
19
4,535
3,801
18
AstraZeneca
USD
3,801
Lucentis®
20
4,437
4,152
15
Novartis
USD
2,441
Roche
1,711
Click here to access and download all
the 2014 data (Excel version available) for FREE!
It’s clear that the methods used to determine product sales are considerably different between IMS and the pharmaceutical companies, however there is a range of consistency as well. How accurate is each information really depends on the analyst’s point of view.
Our take:
With over $350 billion in total sales, we have provided our raw data for your review since we are certain that there are opportunities worth capitalizing
upon and others, which may not be worthwhile to pursue.
While the assessment of pharmaceutical sales is far more complicated
than what we had originally imaged, the focus of Big Pharma on small molecules
is on Hepatitis C drugs (Sofosbuvir, Olysio, AbbVie Hep C), blood thinners, Eliquis® (Apixaban), Xarelto®(Rivaroxaban) and of course ‘tinib’ cancer treatments.
Table 4/ Growth of ‘tinib’ cancer treatments in 2014 (Annual Reports)
Products
Big Pharma
Sales (US $Mn) 2013
Sales (US $Mn) 2014
Growth (%)
Ibrutinib
Pharmacyclics,
Inc
(now
AbbVie)
14
492
3414%
Dasatinib
Bristol-Myers
Squibb
1280
1493
17%
Trametinib
GSK
10
68
580%
Nilotinib
Novartis
1266
1529
21%
Ruxolitinib
Novartis
163
279
71%
Ceritinib
Novartis
Not
launched
31
Sunitinib
Maleate
Pfizer
1204
1174
-2%
Crizotinib
Pfizer
282
438
55%
Axitinib
Pfizer
319
410
29%
Tofacitinib
Citrate
Pfizer
114
308
170%
Click here to access and download all
the 2014 data (Excel version available) for FREE!
However, Big Pharma is now all about biologics.
IMS’s data indicates that the top 10 products have only 5 biologics, while our calculations have 8 out of the top 10 products as biologics. The future strategy is best summed up by the statement in Bristol-Myers Squibb’s annual report “Just 5 years ago, we had about 40% of our development projects in biologics. If we look forward 3-5 years, we believe that number could potentially grow to about 75%”.
The barriers of entry for generic competition and potential windfalls have made rivals come together to co-market Synagis® (AbbVie & AstraZeneca), Remicade® (Johnson & Johnson, Merck and Tanabe), Xolair® and Lucentis® (Roche & Novartis).
Our pharmaceutical whisper (phisper): join the bio-age or bio-degrade!
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